The overwhelming success of Curry Barker's "Obsession" has created a 'limerence' within Hollywood, where every new horror film is now measured against its unprecedented financial triumph. However, this narrow perspective overlooks crucial differences in how horror films find their audiences and achieve profitability.
Take Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil,” for example. This adaptation, bolstered by a familiar IP and Cregger's growing reputation from films like "Barbarian," debuted with a robust $60.2 million domestically, far exceeding "Obsession's" initial $17.2 million. While "Resident Evil" saw a sharper drop-off in subsequent weekends compared to "Obsession's" remarkable sustained growth, its success stemmed from anticipated demand, contrasting with "Obsession's" word-of-mouth phenomenon. The two films, with their vastly different budgets ($75 million for "Resident Evil" vs. $750,000 for "Obsession"), illustrate distinct pathways to box office relevance.
Meanwhile, Casper Kelly's surreal horror-comedy "Buddy" carved out a significant win without needing to be the next "Obsession." Produced for a modest $3 million, "Buddy" grossed $26.6 million domestically, showcasing impressive legs with a nearly fivefold increase from its $5.5 million opening. Its unique marketing, leveraging Kelly's Adult Swim pedigree, resonated with a specific indie audience, proving that meaningful theatrical runs are achievable for distinctive projects that aren't chasing unicorn-level returns.
Franchise sequels in Q3 also demonstrated the importance of matching costs with audience expectations. Sony’s “Insidious: Out of the Further” opened to $25.1 million and reached $65.4 million domestically, a solid performance given its $18 million budget, despite being down from its predecessor. Warner Bros.' “Evil Dead Burn,” however, saw a sharper decline, opening to $13.7 million and ending with $32.2 million domestically, less than half of "Evil Dead Rise's" take, despite an increased production budget. This highlights the dangers of overspending for a diminishing audience base.
For smaller, original horror releases, a different set of benchmarks is crucial. Jane Schoenbrun’s “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” opened in just five theaters but achieved an impressive $50,000 per-theater average, eventually expanding to over 1,000 locations and grossing $6.8 million domestically. This trajectory significantly outperformed Schoenbrun's previous film, demonstrating growth in audience reach. Conversely, Alex Ullom's “It Ends” struggled with a brief expansion and dramatic drops, underscoring the need to evaluate these films within their own financial and distribution contexts, rather than against a blockbuster anomaly.
Not all wide releases found success. Adam Wingard’s “Onslaught” (A24) and Eli Roth’s “Ice Cream Man” both opened in nearly 2,000 theaters but quickly collapsed due to a lack of audience demand, proving that theatrical availability alone isn't a guarantee of success. Their struggles further emphasize that a thoughtful release strategy and genuine audience interest, like that seen with "Buddy," are more potent than sheer screen count.
Finally, the search for the next online sensation to transition to the big screen continues. While Markiplier's "Iron Lung" and Curry Barker himself leveraged their YouTube roots for theatrical success, Q3 didn't yield similar breakouts. However, new indie label Hades Films is actively investing in this pipeline, with releases like "The Influencer Project" starring Chiara King, and "Fresh Meat," an anthology featuring shorts from online creators. This approach signals a healthy recognition that diverse talent discovery, rather than a singular model, is vital for the horror genre's long-term health.
Ultimately, the Q3 box office data from IndieWire suggests that Hollywood needs to broaden its understanding of success in horror. The genre thrives on experimentation and caters to varied audiences, meaning decision-makers must embrace a more nuanced view of profitability that extends beyond the exceptional case of "Obsession."