The R-rated comedy Digger, which sees Cruise portray a flamboyant oil tycoon, Digger Rockwell, attempting to save humanity after his own company creates a global disaster, was initially eyed as a potential awards contender and a much-needed hit for Warner Bros. The ensemble cast also boasts an impressive lineup, including Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons, Emma D'Arcy, Sophie Wilde, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Robert John Burke.
However, industry projections, as reported by Variety, paint a less optimistic picture. The film is now expected to debut with a modest $12 million to $15 million in its opening North American weekend, a noticeable dip from earlier estimates of $18 million to $20 million. This puts Digger at risk of a second-place opening, potentially trailing behind another new release, Verity.
The financial stakes are considerable. With a production budget that escalated from an initial $125 million to between $160 million and $180 million, Digger faces an arduous path to profitability. While Warner Bros. claims the film needs to gross $300 million worldwide to recoup costs, other reports suggest the break-even point could be as high as $350 million.
Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock weighed in on the challenge for Cruise. “Tom Cruise has earned that right,” Bock told Variety, acknowledging the star's willingness to take on a riskier project. However, Bock also pointed to Cruise's established brand: “He’s a franchise machine. Can audiences accept him as a transformative actor again after he's branded himself as the action hero?” The analyst concluded that “his name alone isn’t going to sell it.”
Cruise's career is largely defined by his unparalleled success in action franchises like Mission: Impossible, which has amassed nearly $5 billion globally, and Top Gun, whose 2022 sequel alone soared to $1.5 billion. Yet, his ventures outside this comfort zone have sometimes struggled. The 2017 reboot of The Mummy, for instance, underperformed significantly, leading to tens of millions in losses for Universal. Even the recent Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning didn't quite reach the heights of its predecessors.
The involvement of director Alejandro González Iñárritu, a filmmaker celebrated for Oscar-winning dramas like Birdman and The Revenant, initially fueled significant awards buzz for Digger. Iñárritu's track record suggested a project with artistic merit and critical acclaim. However, early reviews for Digger have been lukewarm, currently sitting at 51% on Rotten Tomatoes, further dampening any hopes for a major awards season run.
For Warner Bros., the potential underperformance of Digger adds to a challenging year at the box office, following other releases like The Bride!, Supergirl, and The End of Oak Street that have also struggled. This comes at a precarious time as Paramount is in the process of acquiring the iconic studio, placing additional pressure on upcoming releases to deliver.
Digger is scheduled to hit theaters on Friday, October 2, 2026.
