The study, released by Luminate, indicates a significant disparity in renewal rates for 2025: broadcast networks are expected to renew a robust 65% of their programming, while major subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services lag behind at just 44%. This trend suggests a fundamental difference in how these two segments of the industry operate and make decisions.

According to Luminate, several factors contribute to broadcast television's higher renewal success. Traditional networks typically operate with more constrained budgets and a finite number of programming slots, necessitating more rigorous vetting and quicker decisions. Their viewership data is also often more straightforward, streamlining the renewal process. In contrast, the streaming world, despite its reputation for being a content goldmine, has become notorious for its high churn rate and leaving many shows in an indefinite state of limbo, as exemplified by Netflix's The Politician, which hasn't seen a formal status update since 2020.

While Netflix frequently bears the brunt of criticism for its cancellations, Luminate's data surprisingly shows it has the highest renewal rate among major SVODs, averaging around 50% for its U.S. slate between 2022 and 2025. However, the report also highlights a broader challenge for streamers: the difficulty in cultivating new, long-running hits. Freshman series accounted for only 42% of U.S. scripted output across major streamers in 2025, hinting at a potential course correction in an increasingly saturated market.

For streaming, audience retention is often considered a crucial metric for success, with a 50% retention rate (meaning half the audience that started a show finished it) serving as a key benchmark. Yet, Luminate's findings reveal a paradox: several series that met or exceeded this threshold were still canceled. Marvel's Wonder Man on Disney+, for instance, reportedly retained 52% of its audience over 12 weeks. Initially renewed for a second season, the show was inexplicably axed just months later. Similarly, Prime Video's On Call and Netflix's The Waterfront (which boasted an impressive 62% retention) were also dropped despite strong audience engagement.

It's not an exact science, however, and retention thresholds appear to vary by platform. Apple TV+, for example, seems to accept lower retention rates, particularly for its prestige dramas like The Studio, which recorded a 28% retention. Peacock also demonstrates a more lenient approach, with its most-watched canceled series, The Copenhagen Test, seeing 33% retention. This suggests that factors beyond raw numbers, such as critical acclaim, awards potential, or strategic fit, may play a larger role for certain streamers.

Beyond scripted content, the report indicates that unscripted series face even steeper odds in the streaming landscape, with only about 38% renewed from 2022 to 2025, despite breakout hits like The Traitors, Dancing with the Stars, and Love Island.

This Luminate report underscores the evolving and often unpredictable nature of the television industry, challenging long-held beliefs about where content finds its most stable home and highlighting the complex interplay of data, budget, and strategy in the cutthroat world of show renewals.