The study, conducted by Olsberg-SPI, analyzed the potential economic impact of a federal tax incentive versus the trajectory if the current state-level incentive system remains unchanged. The findings are compelling, suggesting a critical juncture for the industry.

Should a federal incentive program be adopted, the US economy could see an additional $125.3 billion in production spend between 2027 and 2035, leading to nearly $250 billion in overall economic income. This surge could also generate an estimated 143,500 new full-time jobs across the country. Perhaps most notably for film and TV fans, America's share of global film and television projects could skyrocket to as high as 65 percent.

Conversely, the report warns of a grim outlook without federal intervention. If incentives remain solely at the state level, production spending is projected to remain flat or even decline. The US share of global film projects, which stood at about 34 percent in 2025, could plummet to just 25 percent by 2035. Similarly, TV production's share could fall from 42 percent to 29 percent over the same period. The message is clear: more and more productions will leave US borders without a competitive federal incentive.

This isn't just about Hollywood studios; it's about a vast ecosystem of workers, from set builders and caterers to truck drivers and electricians, in all 50 states. Charles Rivkin, Chairman and CEO of the Motion Picture Association, emphasized this broad impact, stating, "A federal incentive would be a gamechanger for our industry. This study tells us that we can bring more opportunities to life for people in all 50 states who bring great stories to life — the casts and crews, the set builders, construction workers, truck drivers, caterers, and more."

The proposed incentive model considered in the study assumes a transferable tax credit of at least 20 percent, with an additional 5 percent for independent productions and another 5 percent for labor costs incurred in FEMA-declared disaster areas. Crucially, these federal incentives would stack on top of existing state-level programs, mirroring practices in other countries.

The need for a federal boost is underscored by the escalating global competition. As of 2025, there are 121 active national, state, and provincial incentives offered worldwide, a significant increase from 86 in 2017. Many US states already offer incentives (39 currently do), but a unified federal approach is seen as essential to compete on the international stage.

Support for this initiative spans both sides of the political aisle and includes major Hollywood guilds. Actor Jon Voight, a prominent advocate, commented on the urgency: "The entertainment industry that I love is in dire straits, with productions running to Canada and overseas due to the tax advantages offered to producers." He believes a federal tax credit would "level the playing field and bring productions back to America immediately."

The study highlights a critical decision point for policymakers. The choice between proactive investment and potential decline could reshape the landscape of American film and television production for decades to come. The full report from the MPA offers comprehensive details for those interested in the granular economic projections.