As the dust settles from the season's first major film festivals, a cohort of films has distinguished itself as potential contenders for the upcoming Academy Awards. Industry watchers, including Indiewire, are closely tracking the buzz generated at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, alongside the sustained impact of earlier showcases like Cannes and Sundance.

Leading the charge for Best Picture nominations are two ambitious blockbusters: Amazon MGM's "Project Hail Mary" and Universal's "The Odyssey." Both films are also anticipated to be strong contenders across various craft categories, including Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Film Editing, and Best Sound.

On the independent circuit, A24's "The Invite," though not a box office juggernaut like some of the studio's other releases, emerged as the MVP of Sundance. It's lauded for its ensemble of four outstanding performances, notably featuring director Olivia Wilde, positioning it as a significant specialty cinema entry.

Best Picture and Acting Frontrunners

The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) People's Choice Award often signals a strong Best Picture contender, and this year's winner, Netflix's "La Bola Negra," is not just a favorite for a nomination but an early frontrunner to win. Directed by Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo (known as Los Javis), this Spanish film also impressed at Telluride and is expected to garner nominations across numerous craft categories, matching the scale of "The Odyssey" and "Project Hail Mary." Runners-up "Being Heumann" (Apple) and "I Play Rocky" (Amazon MGM) also premiered at TIFF and are now in the conversation. The surprise international People's Choice went to the English-language UK entry "Elsinore," which, while ineligible for Best International Feature, clearly resonated with audiences. All three TIFF People's Choice winners are also being considered for the Best Casting Oscar, a category that often favors films excelling in world-building through their cast.

Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures), a standout at both Venice and Telluride, is another film almost certain to receive a Best Picture nomination. Its reception was universally glowing, particularly highlighting John Malkovich, who received a tribute at Telluride and the Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice. The film's 1970s Easter Island setting, captured beautifully by cinematographer Ben Davis, positions it well for craft nominations, especially in areas focused on scale. An Original Screenplay nomination for McDonagh is considered a given.

Mike Leigh's "Tender Loving Care" (Bleecker Street), which premiered at Telluride, is building significant goodwill. This potential swan song from the British auteur is beloved, and while it's early to say if Leigh will enter the Best Director race, a sixth Best Original Screenplay nomination is highly likely. Its lead, Kate O’Flynn, fresh off an Emmy win for "Widow’s Bay," is also poised for an Oscar run.

Finally, Jordan Firstman’s "Club Kid," a Cannes premiere, is gaining considerable word-of-mouth despite not placing for the People's Choice at TIFF. This crowd-pleaser could secure multiple nominations, including Best Picture.

In the acting categories, Telluride premieres have also yielded strong candidates. Jesse Eisenberg’s "The Debut," an A24 film initially considered for Best Picture, is now more likely to secure nominations for its performances, with Best Actress Oscar-winner Julianne Moore seen as a front-runner and its original musical numbers vying for Best Original Song. Andrew Scott, never before nominated, is incandescent in "Elsinore" as a dying actor performing "Hamlet."

Veteran actor John Turturro, who has also never received an Academy Award nomination, is high on the list of possibilities for Best Actor for his role in "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York." This Sundance premiere, distributed by Sony Pictures Classics, proved to be a hit at Telluride, making him a strong contender in a crowded field that includes stars like Tom Cruise, Matt Damon, Ryan Gosling, and John Malkovich.

International and Documentary Features

While "La Bola Negra" is a strong favorite for Best International Feature, the competition remains robust. May el-Toukhy’s "Woman Unknown," which secured the Venice Golden Lion, could become Denmark's submission and has momentum for a shortlist spot if it finds a distributor. However, its limited exposure might hinder lead Mathilde Arcel's chances in the Best Actress race, despite her Volpi Cup win.

More likely to make a significant impact is Lee Chang-dong’s "Possible Love," the Venice Grand Jury Prize winner and South Korea’s submission, backed by Netflix. Other Cannes titles that gained traction at Telluride include Austria’s "Rose" by Markus Schleinzer and France’s official selection "Minotaur" by Andrey Zvyagintsev. Conversely, Cristian Mungiu’s Palme d’Or winner "Fjord" and Paweł Pawlikowski’s "Fatherland" have seen their buzz quiet down after their fall festival runs, despite strong pedigrees and distribution.

In the Documentary Feature race, two films have made a considerable splash: "Everest: The Other Side" from "Free Solo" Oscar winners Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin (National Geographic), and Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s rule-breaking portrait of Elizabeth Holmes, "You Can See Everything" (A24). The latter's nomination will hinge on the openness of the often opinionated documentary voters.

Alex Gibney’s four-hour profile "Musk" (Bleecker/HBO), a Venice and Toronto premiere, could also factor into this year’s race, potentially marking a return to the Oscar nominations for Gibney since his win for "Taxi to the Dark Side."

Finally, "NAZA," the Special Jury Prize-winning film from Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, who recently won an Oscar for "No Other Land," generated significant discussion at Venice. Featuring IDF soldiers discussing war crimes, and with a distribution plan already in place, it is well on track for another nomination. However, it is highly unlikely that any documentary, regardless of its popularity, will break into the Best Picture race.