Courtesy of VIFF

Searchlight Pictures

2027 Academy Awards Predictions Commentary (Updated: Sept. 10, 2026):

"Dune: Part Three" won’t arrive until December, and Denis Villeneuve’s finale will hang over every projection between now and then. Christopher Nolan’s "The Odyssey" opened in the summer and has not slipped an inch since. Neither felt any need to haul itself up to any of the festivals.

The movies that actually turned up in Telluride are why the race reads differently this week than it did last. Martin McDonagh’s "Wild Horse Nine," with John Malkovich doing the loosest, meanest work of his late career, walked out of its first screening to the kind of ovation that puts him and the movie squarely in the thick of the race. Searchlight has made this climb before, and they have their eye on the prize. Over at Focus Features, Simon Stone’s "Elsinore" handed Andrew Scott a showcase that the awards team can build a whole campaign around. A24’s "The Debut" had the biggest applause at the fest, and now TIFF will digest it and see if it can go even further.

But A24 has other stuff up its sleeves.

No documentary has ever been nominated for best picture. Not saying there haven’t been worthy entrants such as "Hoop Dreams," "Searching for Sugar Man," and dozens of others. Across nearly a hundred years of this ceremony, the category has kept a wall between nonfiction and the top prize, and that wall has never once come down. Enter Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s "You Can See Everything," which surprised Telluride and took the town by storm. If the film holds through the fall, the 99th Academy Awards could hand a documentary feature the first Best Picture nomination in Oscar history, and A24 wants it.

Then there is "Wildwood," which was just announced as the opening night film of AFI Fest, and Laika is looking to make its own history.

Three animated films have ever broken through into the top category: "Beauty and the Beast," "Up," and "Toy Story 3." Every last one of them representing a Disney flag. Laika, the Oregon studio that has spent two decades building whole worlds one agonizing frame at a time, has never come within shouting distance of the marquee category. Travis Knight’s "Wildwood" is the film that could finally get there, and getting there would make Laika the first animation house from outside the Disney orbit to land in the category. A stop-motion fantasy, hand-posed frame by frame, could go the distance.

But first, Toronto will get its say. While Telluride is a room full of believers, TIFF is tens of thousands of strangers with a ballot and its People’s Choice Award that can prove that a movie has what it takes.

The predictions will look nothing like this by Thanksgiving, and we’re ready to keep watching the race unfold.

The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027, and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.

Projected nomination leaders (films): "The Odyssey" (15); "Dune: Part Three" (12); "The Debut" and "La Bola Negra" (7); "Wild Horse Nine" and "Wildwood" (6); "Project Hail Mary" (5)

Projected nomination leaders (studios): A24 (18); Universal Pictures and Warner Bros. (15); Netflix (12); Laika and Searchlight Pictures (6); Amazon MGM Studios (5)

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Best Picture

Image Credit: Courtesy of A24

• "The Debut" (A24)

Jesse Eisenberg, Ali Herting, Dave McCary, Emma Stone

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner

Cale Boyter, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve

• "Fjord" (Neon)

Pascal Caucheteux, Dyveke Bjørkly Graver, Cristian Mungiu, Andrea Berensten Ottmar, Marco Perego, Tudor Reu

• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)

Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Jorge Pezzi

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas

• "Project Hail Mary" (Amazon MGM Studios)

Ryan Gosling, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Rachel O’Connor, Amy Pascal

• "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures)

Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, Anie Overland

• "Wildwood" (Laika)

Travis Knight, Sam Wilson

• "You Can See Everything" (A24)

Maggie Ambrose, Tatiana Bears, Jack Davis, Nathan Fielder, Lance Oppenheim

Directing

Image Credit: Courtesy of MK2 Films

• Martin McDonagh, "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Christopher Nolan, "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)
• Denis Villeneuve, "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner
• Olivia Wilde, "The Invite" (A24)
• Andrey Zvyagintsev, "Minotaur" (Mubi)

Actor

Image Credit: Anthony Dickenson

• Tom Cruise, "Digger" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner
• Matt Damon, "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)
• John Malkovich, "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures)
• Andrew Scott, "Elsinore" (Focus Features)
• Sebastian Stan, "Fjord" (Neon)

Actress

Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection

• Marion Bailey, "Tender Loving Care" (Bleecker Street)
• Rosalind Eleazar, "Misty Green" (A24)
• Sandra Hüller, "Fatherland" (Mubi)
• Julianne Moore, "The Debut" (A24) — Predicted Winner
• Inde Navarrette, "Obsession" (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor

Image Credit: Anthony Dickenson

• Colman Domingo, "Michael" (Lionsgate)
• Paul Giamatti, "The Debut" (A24) — Predicted Winner
• John Leguizamo, "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)
• Guy Pearce, "Ink" (Netflix)
• Sam Rockwell, "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures)

Supporting Actress

Image Credit: Bleecker Street

• [REDACTED], "You Can See Everything" (A24)
• Penélope Cruz, "The Invite" (A24)
• Anne Hathaway, "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures) — Predicted Winner
• Samantha Morton, "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)
• Kate O’Flynn, "Tender Loving Care" (Bleecker Street)

Original Screenplay

Image Credit: A24

• "Club Kid" (A24)

Jordan Firstman

• "The Debut" (A24)

Jesse Eisenberg

• "Fjord" (Neon)

Cristian Mungiu

• "Tender Loving Care" (Bleecker Street)

Mike Leigh

• "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures) — Predicted Winner

Martin McDonagh

Adapted Screenplay

Image Credit: A24

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.)

Brian K. Vaughan, Denis Villeneuve

• "The Invite" (A24) — Predicted Winner

Rashida Jones and Will McCormack

• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)

Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Christopher Nolan

• "Wildwood" (Laika)

Chris Butler

Casting

Image Credit: Carla Oset/Netflix

• "Being Heumann" (Apple Original Films) — Predicted Winner

Adam Caldwell, Bernard Telsey

• "Club Kid" (A24)

Carmen Cuba

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.)

Francine Maisler

• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)

Eva Leira and Yolanda Serrano

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

John Papsidera

Animated Feature

Image Credit: Netflix

• "Forgotten Island" (DreamWorks Animation)

Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado, Mark Swift

• "Ray Gunn" (Netflix)

Brad Bird, John Lasseter, Lisa Beroud, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg

• "Tangles" (Independent Film Company)

Leah Nelson

• "Toy Story 5" (Pixar)

Andrew Stanton, Lindsey Collins, Jessica Choi

• "Wildwood" (Laika) — Predicted Winner

Travis Knight, Sam Wilson

Production Design

Image Credit: Netflix

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner

Patrick Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau

• "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" (Netflix)

Donald Graham Burt

• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)

Roger Bellés, Judit Ferrer

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Ruth De Jong, Larry Dias, Gene Serdena

• "Project Hail Mary" (Amazon MGM Studios)

Charles Wood, John Bush

Cinematography

Image Credit: Warner Bros.

• "Digger" (Warner Bros.)

Emmanuel Lubezki

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner

Linus Sandgren

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Hoyte van Hoytema

• "Project Hail Mary" (Amazon MGM Studios)

Greig Fraser

• "You Can See Everything" (A24)

David Bolen

Costume Design

Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy YouTube/Focus Features

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner

Jacqueline West

• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)

Ana López Cobos

• "Michael" (Lionsgate)

Marci Rodgers

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Ellen Mirojnick

• "Sense and Sensibility" (Focus Features)

Grace Snell

Film Editing

Image Credit: A24

• "The Debut" (A24)

Robert Nassau

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.)

Joe Walker

• "The Invite" (A24)

Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Anthony Boys

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures) — Predicted Winner

Jennifer Lame

• "Wild Horse Nine" (Searchlight Pictures)

Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

Makeup and Hairstyling

Image Credit: ©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Collection

• "Digger" (Warner Bros.)
• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner
• "Michael" (Lionsgate)
• "The Mosquito Bowl" (Netflix)
• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Sound

Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner
• "La Bola Negra" (Netflix)
• "Michael" (Lionsgate)
• "Project Hail Mary" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects

Image Credit: ©Columbia Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner
• "Godzilla Minus Zero" (Toho)
• "Project Hail Mary" (Amazon MGM Studios)
• "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" (Sony Pictures)
• "Wildwood" (Laika)

Original Score

Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV

• "The Debut" (A24)

Emile Mosseri

• "Dune: Part Three" (Warner Bros.) — Predicted Winner

Hans Zimmer

• "The Odyssey" (Universal Pictures)

Ludwig Göransson

• "Tenzing" (Apple Original Films)

Rebekka Karijord

• "Wildwood" (Laika)

Dario Marianelli

Original Song

Image Credit: Courtesy Bleecker Street

• "By Any Means" from "By Any Means" (Paramount Pictures)
• "This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)" from "The Debut" (A24) — Predicted Winner
• "Let Me Sell You a Dream" from "Musk" (Bleecker Street)
• "I Knew It, I Knew You" from "Toy Story 5" (Pixar)
• TBA song from "Wildwood" (Laika)

Documentary Feature

Image Credit: William Greaves Productions

• "The Disciple: A Wu-Tang Fable" (Netflix)

Joanna Natasegara

• "Everest: The Other Side" (National Geographic)

Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi

• "Musk" (Bleecker Street)

Alex Gibney

• "Once Upon a Time in Harlem" (Neon)

David Greaves, Liani Greaves, William Greaves

• "You Can See Everything" (A24) — Predicted Winner

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim

International Feature

Image Credit: Courtesy of The Barricades

• "Everytime" from Germany (1-2 Special)

Dir. Sandra Wollner

• "Fjord" from Romania (Neon)

Dir. Cristian Mingui

• "La Bola Negra" from Spain (Netflix)

Dir. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo

• "Minotaur" from France (Mubi) — Predicted Winner

Dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev

• "Possible Love" from South Korea (Netflix)

Dir. Lee Chang-dong